ANALYSTS CUT STOCK
MARKET GROWTH FORECAST
Some stock market analysts have cut their growth projection for
the Nigerian equities market for the current financial year, following the 4.2
per cent growth recorded in the first half (H1) of the year.
Given the forecast of 13.3 and 14 per cent growth analysts projected in the beginning of the year, H1 performance would have been about 6.5 per cent.
However, the market returned 4.2 per cent, indicating that meeting the projected 14 per cent would be difficult; also considering the fact the market has in most times performed poorly in the second half (H2).
Before now, analysts at FSDH Securities Limited had said the market would close the year with a growth of 13.3 per cent, while those at Meristem Securities Limited (MSL) predicted 13.5 per cent. Similarly, analysts at FBN Capital envisaged a growth of 14 per cent.
But given the 4.2 per cent, analysts at MSL have revised their projection from 13.5 per cent to 8.26 per cent.
“We have revised our 2012 full year forecast return on the NSE All-Share Index to 8.26 per cent, given our view of macro-drivers and continued negative sentiment towards local equities.
“After a 4.2 return on the NSE-ASI in H1 (driven by 4.59 per cent return in Q2), we anticipate one more bullish quarter in the second half in line with historical trend,” the analysts said in a document made available to THISDAY last Monday.
Apparently supporting the review of the projections by some of the analysts, the Managing Director/Chief Executive of Financial Derivatives Limited, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, disclosed last week that historically, the NSE index had not done well in the H2.
According to him, average H1 return between 1986 and 2011 was 16.9 per cent while average H2 return was 7.5 per cent. Between 2008 and 2011, market gained 1.15 per cent in the H1 of the year while H2 negative 21.4 per cent per cent.
“See-sawing will continue in July with policy paralysis still keeping out retail investors, while downward trend will continue although at a lower rate. However, a trend reversal should begin from mid-July.
“Results from the banking sector will stimulate a short bullish run. Naira depreciation and persistent inflationary pressure means interest rate will remain high. We expect a positive return between two and three per cent for July,” Rewane added.
The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board
(NCDMB) and Shell Petroleum Development Company have entered into an agreement
with five foreign companies to ensure that they manufacture their products
in-country.
The value of the investment which is
expected to begin shortly is put at $62 million.
The five companies are part of the 58
manufacturers of oil and gas equipment that have met the technical requirements
prescribed by NCDMB in its Equipment Components Manufacturing Initiative and
have been issued Nigerian Content Equipment Certificates.
The ECMI is geared toward getting
manufacturers of oil and gas equipment or their representatives to commit to
credible proposals on domiciling local manufacturing of some components of
their equipment at the shortest possible time.
Under the ECMI, importation of some
vital industry equipment by the manufacturers is only allowed by the Board
after the suppliers have committed to domiciliation plans.
Speaking at the event in Port Harcourt,
the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Ernest Nwapa, explained that the investments
planned by the five companies were expected to create 250 skilled employments
for Nigerians.
He listed other benefits to include the
transfer of technology know-how, development of manufacturing skills and
development of after-market maintenance skills.
Nwapa however, clarified that obtaining
the Nigerian Content Equipment Certificates was not a licence to win contracts
in the industry.
He added that the Board had an in-built
mechanism to track investment commitments and domiciliation plans and will
apply appropriate sanctions to defaulters.
The executive secretary further
explained that the Board would, in keeping with section 48 of the Nigerian
Content Act, make recommendations to the Minister of Petroleum Resources,
Diezani Alison-Madueke, for a fiscal framework that will impose a higher tax
burden for equipment utilised in the industry with less than 50 percent local
content.
This, he said, would help to address
issues of price competitiveness usually associated with locally made goods.
In his comments, Mutiu Sumonu, managing
director, Shell Petroleum Company of Nigeria and chairman, Shell Group in
Nigeria, explained that his company supported the Equipment Components
Manufacturing Initiative because of the multiplier effects it will bring to the
Oil and Gas Industry and Nigerian economy.
To ensure the success of the
investments, he said SPDC was committed to lead the exercise, offer logistics
assistance to the OEMs and maintain large demands for the equipment.
He added that “Shell has
strategically chosen the focus areas to extend support to foreign investors by
identifying some of the prime bottlenecks in the business environment, namely
electricity and access to land and security, which contribute to over 11
percent losses in sales and will support, to a certain extent, the increase of
activities in country.”
The Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) has signed a 40.7
million Euro seven-year loan facility agreement with two international
development institutions to develop the banks systems and technology
infrastructure.
A statement signed by the bank’s
spokesman, Ouedraogo Nabi Souleymane, in Abuja on Wednesday said the agreement
was signed on June 29, in Lome, Togo.
The statement said the agreement was
signed by Ecobank, PROPARCO, the subsidiary of the French Development Agency
dedicated to financing the private sector and the Belgian Investment Company
for Developing Countries (BIO).
It noted that facility would serve nine
million retail, local corporate, public sectors and microfinance customers,
through 1,180 branches; 1,632 Automated Teller Machines; and 2,744 Point of
Sales.
It quoted Arnold Ekpe, Ecobank’s Group
Chief Executive Officer, as saying: ``the investment demonstrates our ongoing
commitment to enriching Ecobank’s customer experience through investments in systems,
technology and processes.”
Meanwhile, Ecobank’s Nigeria
affiliate has in the past days experience disruptions in its inter-connectivity
services thereby making it difficult for the customers to access their
accounts.
The problem had incapacitated the
retrieval of currencies sent to the customers through Western Union Money
Transfer and Money gram.
Ecobank Nigeria recently acquired
Oceanic Bank Plc. but the customers of the latter had not been fully integrated
into the transnational bank’s transaction systems.
Three banks stocks –namely United Bank for Africa (UBA)
plc, Access Bank plc, and Sterling Bank plc, gained more than others in the
banking subsector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), Business Day
investigations showed.
In a six-month trend (January 4, 2012
to July 4, 2012) monitored by Business Day, United Bank for Africa (UBA) plc
stock rose most, by 61.54 percent, from N2.47kobo to N3.99kobo in the period
under review. This was followed by Access Bank plc stock which rose by 41.95
percent from N5.03kobo to N7.14kobo. Sterling Bank plc was the third best
performer, also in terms of stock price movement, after rising by 24.46 percent
to N1.17kobo from N0.94kobo.
First Bank plc and Zenith Bank plc
stocks occupied the fourth position, according to our trend-watch. While First
Bank rose by 22.22 percent, to N11 on July 4 from the January 4 level of N9; Zenith
Bank plc also rose by 22.22percent, from N12.15kobo to N14.85kobo in the same
period under review.
The banking sub-sector of the Nigerian
Stock Exchange has remained the most active over the 6-month period, when
measured by turnover volume. Year-to-date (YtD), the Nigerian bourse has
returned 6.66 percent evidenced in last week’s report, while the NSE Banking-10
Index has risen by 23.99 percent year-to-date.
Analysts at Financial Derivatives
Company said liquidity remains an issue at the nation’s bourse “with
total volume and value traded for the first half of the year at 50.6billion
units and N347billion respectively.
Other bank stocks that were upbeat in price include Diamond Bank plc and Guaranty Trust Bank plc (GTBank). While the former rose by 15 percent from N2 to N2.30kobo; the latter rose by 12.11 percent, from N14.20kobo to N15.92kobo.
Other bank stocks that were upbeat in price include Diamond Bank plc and Guaranty Trust Bank plc (GTBank). While the former rose by 15 percent from N2 to N2.30kobo; the latter rose by 12.11 percent, from N14.20kobo to N15.92kobo.
These feats recorded in the banks’ stock
price are not expected to reverse soon, as the analysts said valuations,
especially of Nigerian Banks, are compelling and strengthening, adding that “Banks
balance sheets are now at a level that can be considered clean, even as the
stock market is now responding to earnings release.”
Further in trend-watch, banks stock
that lagged most in price are Skye Bank plc, FCMB plc, and Stanbic IBTC Bank
plc.
In the review period, Skye Bank plc lost 24.28 percent of its stock price from the January 4, 2012 level of N3.83kobo, to N2.9kobo as at July 4, 2012. FCMB plc lost 20.28 percent in its stock price, from N4.19kobo to N3.34kobo; while Stanbic IBTC Bank plc dipped from N8 to N6.51kobo in the review period of six-months.
In the review period, Skye Bank plc lost 24.28 percent of its stock price from the January 4, 2012 level of N3.83kobo, to N2.9kobo as at July 4, 2012. FCMB plc lost 20.28 percent in its stock price, from N4.19kobo to N3.34kobo; while Stanbic IBTC Bank plc dipped from N8 to N6.51kobo in the review period of six-months.
Other banking stocks in this category
are Fidelity Bank plc which dipped from N1.41kobo to N1.23kobo in the review
period; Unity Bank plc and Wema Bank plc dropped by 9.09 percent respectively.
Unity Bank plc dipped from N0.55kobo to N0.50kobo while Wema Bank plc also
dropped from N0.55kobo to N0.50kobo.
In a related development, Ecobank
Transnational Incorporated (ETI) stock price dipped by 1.23percent, from
N10.59kobo in the review period of January, to N10.46kobo on July 4.
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